Summary
The Seattle Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) – encompassing King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties – is expected to see a small increase in home prices over the next year. We also expect modest growth in new listings and a slight rise in the median days on market, in line with seasonal trends. King county is expected to have the highest rise in price and the smallest increase in inventory in the MSAs. The region stands in contrast to more volatile markets in the South and Southwest.
Housing Prices
As of April 2025, the median sale price for the Seattle MSA is about $900,000. Our forecasts project this median to hover in the high-$800Ks to low-$900Ks through early 2026, with perhaps a mild seasonal dip in the latter half of 2025. By next spring, prices metro-wide are forecast to be roughly 1–2% higher than they are now – essentially a plateau in real terms, given 2–3% general inflation.
Seattle home values are entering a period of slow growth. This aligns with expectations from housing economists: for example, Redfin analysts predict Seattle’s prices will continue rising modestly into 2025 due to chronic supply constraints , though national forecasts (e.g. Zillow) foresee flat to slight declines in some markets.
Inventory
Several factors rationalize this tepid price trajectory. In the Seattle MSA, there are currently about 5,588 active listings on the market (April 2025) and this inventory is forecast to grow modestly in the coming months. Our forecasts predict a slight rise in active listings over the summer, potentially reaching a seasonal high by June–July 2025, then dipping again in winter.
Overall active listings could be up a few percentage points year-over-year. This is consistent with recent trends – nationally, housing supply at the end of 2024 was up ~12% from a year prior according to Redfin, and Seattle’s inventory in late 2024 hit its highest level since 2020 as more homes sat on the market unsold. Even so, many would-be sellers are staying put to keep their sub-3% mortgage rates.
Demand
On the demand side, high mortgage rates have been the predominant cooling force since 2022. The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes in 2022–2023 pushed 30-year mortgage rates from ~3% to the 6–7% range, dramatically reducing buyer affordability. As of mid-April 2025, the average 30-year fixed rate is around 6.8% according to money.com, up from ~3% two years ago. Freddie Mac notes that rates have stayed below 7% for over three months, whereas a year ago they hit 7.1%. This slight moderation has actually brought some buyers back: mortgage purchase applications in spring 2025 are about 13% higher than last year’s levels.
While there is an expectation that mortgage rates will gradually drift down in late 2025 or 2026 (the Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts ~6.5% average in 2025, easing to ~6.2% in 2026).
Days on Market
The Seattle MSA’s median DOM as of April 2025 is extremely low at just 6 days (meaning a typical home sells in under a week). Our forecast expects DOM to increase over the next year by about 12–13%, bringing the median to roughly 7–8 days on market. That is still very fast by historical standards, but it indicates a slight cooling. Seasonally, DOM usually falls to a low in spring (fast sales) and rises in winter (slower sales); the forecast captures this, projecting a peak around December 2025 before dropping again. Notably, while a 12% rise sounds large, it is a change from an extraordinarily low base.
County Level Analysis
Snohomish County, WA
Snohomish County – covering the northern suburbs and exurbs of Seattle, including cities like Everett and Lynnwood – experienced rapid housing growth during the pandemic as remote work enabled more buyers to seek homes outside King County. As of April 2025, Snohomish’s median sale price stands around $774,000. Home values here have climbed significantly in the past few years (the current median is roughly 7–8% higher than two years ago), but the forecast for the next 12 months indicates a leveling off. Median prices in Snohomish County are projected to remain essentially flat – potentially ending up slightly below current levels (on the order of –0.5% to 0%). Snohomish led the region in growth recently, with one of the fastest population growth rates in the state (1.5% increase from 2022 to 2023) fueling housing demand. Now, higher interest rates and stretched affordability are dampening that price momentum.
Key Snohomish Forecast Metrics (2025–2026):
- Median Sale Price: Essentially flat (~0% growth, vs. +1.6% metro average). Snohomish underperforms the region on price, reflecting affordability limits.
- Median Days on Market: Increasing ~28% (faster rise than Seattle overall) – expect a median DOM around 6–7 days in peak 2025 vs 5 days now. Homes will take a bit longer to sell as demand cools.
- Active Listings: Slight growth, but 15% lower growth than the MSA. Inventory remains constrained – no flood of new listings expected.
- Homes Sold: Projected sales count decline of ~22% (Seattle MSA sees -20%) – indicating a sizable drop in market activity. Snohomish may see one of the larger volume contractions, as many buyers stay sidelined.
King County, WA
King County, home to Seattle, Bellevue, and Redmond, is the economic engine of the region and its most populous county (≈2.38 million residents in 2024). The housing market in King County is forecast to be the most resilient in the Seattle MSA over the next year. As of April 2025, the median sale price in King County is about $999,500. This is the highest of the four counties by a wide margin, and notably, King County is the only one where prices never fell year-over-year even during the 2022–2023 cooldown – a testament to its limited supply and high demand. Our forecast predicts*King County’s median price will increase by approximately +2.7% in the coming 12 months, the strongest growth rate in the region.
Key King County Forecast Metrics:
- Median Sale Price: +2.7% over next 12 months (strongest in MSA). Forecast median ~$1.02M by early 2026. Driven by high incomes and scarce inventory.
- Median Days on Market: Up ~39% (King DOM growth is 27% higher than MSA average). Median DOM may rise from ~6 to ~8–9 days. Still quick sales.
- Active Listings: Slight increase; growth ~5% above MSA average Inventory remains constrained relative to demand, though condo listings and stale luxury listings add to count.
- Homes Sold: Projected sales volume decline ~18% (King outperforms slightly: 2.5% smaller drop than MSA). Lower end buyer pullback is partially offset by resilient high-end demand.
Pierce County, WA
Pierce County, encompassing Tacoma and surrounding communities to the south of Seattle, is the Seattle MSA’s second-most populous county (~953,000 in 2024). Pierce historically offers a more affordable alternative to King County, and in recent years saw an influx of buyers seeking value for money. As of April 2025, the median sale price in Pierce County is around $556,250 – significantly lower than in King or Snohomish. Our 12-month forecast for Pierce County suggests a relatively soft market with slight price depreciation. Pierce is projected to have the weakest price growth in the region, roughly –0.8% over the next year.
Key Pierce Forecast Metrics:
- Median Sale Price: -0.8% year-over-year (2025), the only county with a projected decline. Median remains in mid-$550Ks. Affordability limits and sufficient supply put slight downward pressure on prices.
- Median Days on Market: Up ~38% (Pierce DOM growth is ~25.9% higher than MSA avg). Expect median DOM near ~18 days (from ~13 days now). Selling times lengthen notably, indicating a cooler market.
- Active Listings: Mild increase; inventory growth ~9.1% lower than MSA. (Pierce already has relatively higher inventory, ~2 months supply). New construction and more seller listings keep supply moderate.
- Homes Sold: ~13% decline in sales (smaller drop than other counties – Pierce’s sales growth is ~7% higher than MSA). Transaction count holds up relatively well due to continued demand at lower price points and routine military relocations.
